SBF分享Alameda投资理念:加密世界喜欢多头,项目长期发展更值得关注

网络转载 2020-10-10 11:39:00 19380

——本文翻译自FTX兼Alameda Research创始人SBF于2020年10月9日发布的最新推特关于Alameda如何看待投资,文末附推特原文。


这不是投资建议,不是 Alameda的建议。我在这里只分享Alameda相关内容,而不分享其投资建议。(NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. NOT ALAMEDA ADVICE. JUST ALAMEDA, NO ADVICE.)

并且,我不是Alameda,Alameda是一个交易者团队。我专注于FTX和Serum。但我同时也参与了较大的投资。

对于Alameda的交易心得,我们将在下一篇文章中,分享来自Alameda的交易员@AlamedaTrabucco 的交易分享。

我现在才意识到,但为时已晚,我的推特内容对“我们如何思考投资”这一点,给出了一个相当不具代表性的观点。

这是由于以下的原因:除非是因为某个内容引到了这个点,否则我不会谈论它。并且,我通常只会谈论好的方面,而不谈坏的方面。

其实有很多让我们感到不那么兴奋的项目,但我会尝试不在公众面前说他不好的地方。我不想伤害那些创建这些项目的人,并且他们也没有做任何伤害我们的事情。所以我会专注于让我们感到兴奋的事情上。

我们自然而然会做多的数字资产:从FTT,到SRM,再到所有我们投资的项目。

并且我们想要一种方法来进行对冲:我们能够对冲的越多,我们能够投资的就越多,那么我们能够搭建的也就越多。所以我们会经常做空那些不那么令人兴奋的事情,这是负责任的行为。

但这并不意味着我们有恶意。并且有一些,像 YFI有很好的建设者——如果Andre搭建了与Yield Farming相关性更低的酷东西,他们可能会卷土重来。

有时候我们并不看涨。我已经说过很多次了,Yield Farming 是一个泡沫,就像现在大多数 DeFi 和大多数 NFT 一样。

当我不看涨时,通常会遭到抨击——看看由于做空YFI和UNI后社区的反应。这就是事实,而且毫不含糊:加密世界喜欢多头,讨厌空头。

正因为如此,而且因为我不想伤害其他项目——我倾向于不谈论定价被高估的通证。这可能是个错误:有些人觉得我认为项目会上涨。但事实是,我不知道市场会上涨还是下跌,我也只是猜测。

我们都是如此,我无法控制,并且没有人可以。我只是尽其所能挑选我认为的有巨大潜力的项目。而如果你要去对冲的话,你需要去做空那些你不那么看好的东西。我不看好那些基于以太坊的DeFi项目:他们根本就没有办法扩容,而这是致命的。但这并不意味着DeFi是没有未来的!

那么:我们什么时候会投资呢?我们会找寻那些很有前景的项目:

  • 我们认为优秀的团队;

  • 我们觉得新颖并重要的点子;

  • 同时他们又能够很好的实施自己的想法;

  • 或者说项目的估值很低。

这里面还有另一种:那些有很棒的通证分布,但其他方面可能一般的项目。我们有时候是会投资的,但也并不是很有把握。但当我们有把握的时候:我们会竭尽全力、不顾一切地捍卫那些我们所相信的项目。

那当市场暴跌时该怎么办?那些小额的投资我不知道,但是针对那些我们觉得非常有益的项目,我们决不会恐慌性抛售。我们能够:

  • 提供流动性;

  • 帮助上币;

  • 提供很多有用的建议;

  • 提供买盘支持;

  • 帮项目对接可能的合作方;

  • 在需要的时候协助项目。

还有其他任何的我们认为对项目有帮助的事情。

但有些东西我们不能做:

  • 我们不能帮助项目方搭建项目;

  • 我们不能阻止其他人抛售。

即便是最优秀的项目,有时候这些事情仍会发生。这非常糟糕。

我们改变不了宏观因素:特朗普得新冠、经济刺激方案被取消、DeFi泡沫破灭、等等。所以SRM、FTT以及其他的项目都暴跌了。但是我们仍然在这里,而当事情有好转时,它们终究会上涨。

抛开其他的,同时我有时候也觉得我需要对我的合作方们负责。其中一个合作方最近就身陷囫囵。我和他们聊了很久,并自愿更改了我们持仓的解锁周期。我们竭尽全力帮助了他们。

另一个事情值得一提:我们一直在找寻各种合作方。我们找寻那些能够整合到Serum生态的合作方。而这种合作形式一定是双方互利共赢的。最终我们的目标绝对不是低买高卖。如果可能的话,我们想让双方都能从中获利。

那针对我上面说的有什么例子呢?

  • HNT:非常酷的项目、未来充满无限可能、已经取得了很好的进展、并且很棒的价格。但是 -- 我们对他们的代币分布以及社群并不是那么有信心。

  • AVAX:优秀的区块链并且有可能有极大的成长空间。

  • SUSHI:很高的代币营收/市值比例、在搭建很酷的东西。但是,及其糟糕的投资者情绪。

还有更多例如:ALPHA、TOMO、UBXT、CREAM、COMP、LEND、BAL、SXP、SUSH、 BTMX、BNB、HT、OKB、LEO……所以你该买入这些项目吗?我不清楚!也许不应该。但如果我们买了,你为什么不呢?

但以下是一些不该买他们的理由:第一,我们对自己买入的价格很满意。但这个价格也许不同于当前市场价。你并不知道我们什么时候买入的。第二,一些很棒的项目通证的价格并不会上涨。Sushiswap做了很多令人印象深刻的事情,但Sushi的价格却一直在跌。

可能是策略性的,或许是需要更长的时间周期,又或许是有很大的成长空间但有较小的成长可能性。又可能仅仅只是运气不好,或者只是我们错了。通常来说,以下是我们看项目好坏与否的模版:

  1. 有巨大的成长空间;

  2. 是个非常酷的项目;

  3. 有很棒的团队;

  4. 有合作的可能性。


我们同时还会做很多主观判断。例如:

  • [A] 每天$50亿美金交易量,有$10亿美金销毁;

  • [B] 0利润,$3亿美金的每日激励流量。

B的市场价值>A的市场价值

如果你在美国,可能会感觉上述模版可能不太舒服或感觉是错的。但如果你在全球其它地区,你可能会想“这很明显”。但我们都在同一个世界。总之,我就写一些想法,反思了一下,开始更看多 [A]。

FTT、SRM 和 SOL 属于各自的类别。有些项目是我们投资的,有些是我们支持的。然后我们会努力争取的项目。我们不是因为持有这些投资才相信他们,而是我们因为相信他们才投资的。当我们有信念时间,我们买入。

但这些都不构成投资建议。即使我们很在意这些项目,有些时候他们的通证价格还是会下跌。我们无法阻止它发生。我们会尽力做我们能做的,把更多精力放在长线开发创造中。而非短线的价格波动上。

很认真地再说一次这不构成任何投资建议,我说了几次但还不够。这不构成投资建议。我并不清楚什么会涨什么会跌,我也真的不清楚短线价格变化的方向。

价格变化完全取决于你们会怎么做:无论你是买入或卖出。

对于一些不构成交易建议的分享,我们将在下一篇文章中,分享来自Alameda的交易员@AlamedaTrabucco 的一些交易想法。

“基于Alameda是且仅是一家交易公司,我想再次分享一些关于我们如何交易的想法。(与Sam的如何思考长期投资相反)。” —— @AlamedaTrabucco

…...


————————


以下为推特原文:

1) How Alameda thinks about investments


2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. NOT ALAMEDA ADVICE. JUST ALAMEDA, NO ADVICE.

Also: I am not Alameda; Alameda is a team of traders. I focus on FTX and Serum. I am, however, decently involved in larger investments.

For thoughts on Alameda's trading, see @AlamedaTrabucco


3) I realize now, too late, that my Twitter feed gives a fairly non-representative view of how we think about investments.

There are a few reasons for that: mostly that I don't talk about it unless prompted, but also that I usually only talk about the good, not the bad.


4) There are a lot of projects we're less excited about, but I try not to shit on them publicly.

I don't want to hurt builders, and they haven't done anything to hurt us.

So I focus on what excites us the most.


5) We naturally get long crypto: from FTT, and SRM, and all of our investments.

And we'd like a way to hedge:

the more we are able to hedge, the more we can invest, and the more we can build.


6) So we will often short the things that are less exciting.

It's the responsible thing to do.

But that doesn't mean we have ill will.

And some, like YFI, have great builders -- and might come roaring back if/when Andre builds cool shit that's less yield farming related.


7) Sometimes we aren't bullish.

I've said many times that yield farming is a bubble, as is much of DeFi, and most of NFTs right now.

I generally get shit when I'm not bullish -- see the reaction to shorting YFI and UNI.


8) It's just true, and unambiguous: crypto loves bulls and hates bears.

Because of that, and because I don't want to hurt other projects--I tend not to talk about tokens I think are overpriced.

This might have been a mistake: some thought that I thought things would go up.


9) But the truth is:

I don't know if markets will go up or down. I'm just guessing.

We all are.

And I can't control it: none of us can.

I'm just doing the best I can to pick the projects I think have huge potential.


10) And, to hedge, shorting things with less upside.

I'm not bullish on ETH-based DeFi as it exists: it just doesn't scale, and that's fatal.

But that doesn't mean future DeFi won't be huge!

And maybe even on ETH (2.0).


11) Anyway: how about when we _do_ invest?

Usually, we look for projects with huge upside:

--teams we think are great

--ideas that are new and important

--might actually build it well

--price seems too low

Sometimes we don't get all (4), and that's OK--sometimes 2-3 is enough.


12) There's another type too -- great tokenomics but everything else is meh. Sometimes we buy, but with less conviction.

But when we _do_ have conviction:

we will sometimes fight like hell for the projects we really believe in.


13) So what happens when things crash?

IDK for marginal investments.

But for the most exciting ones: we don't panic sell.

We buy, from panic sellers. Sometime we buy a lot.


14) We:

--provide liquidity

--help with listings

--give lots of advice

--provide buy-side support

--reach out to potential partners

--pinch hit when needed

And whatever else is useful.


15) There are some things we can't do:

--we can't build for the team

--we can't stop people from selling

sometimes those happen, even in exciting projects, and things are bad.

That sucks.

It is what it is.


16) We also can't control macro: trump got COVID, stimulus was canceled, and DeFi bubble burst.

So SRM, and FTT, and others, went down.

But we're still there, and when things are good, they go up.

Like today.


17) And we also feel some weak sense of duty towards partners, independent of anything else.

One was in a bad position recently.

We talked through it, and adjusted our lockup, and did what we could.


18) Another thing worth mentioning:

We try to find partnerships. We look for places where a Serum integration would be mutually beneficial, or other ways to work together.

In the end our goal isn't just buy low-sell high. If possible, it's to leave both sides better off.


19) What are examples?

HNT: cool project, huge upside, good partial progress, good price. But -- less certain on tokenomics and community.

AVAX: legit chain, has a chance to get huge.

SUSHI: high token revenue / market cap, building cool stuff. But, terrible sentiment.


20) And many more: ALPHA, TOMO, UBXT, CREAM, COMP, LEND, BAL, SXP, SUSHI, BTMX, BNB, HT, OKB, LEO...

So should you go buy these?

IDK! Maybe not.

But why not, if we did?

THERE ARE REALLY GOOD REASONS NOT TO.


21) First, we liked the price *we* bought at. But that might not be the current price!

You don't know when we bought.


Second, sometimes great projects don't go up.

Sushiswap did lots of impressive things, and SUSHI kept going down.


22) Maybe it's strategic, or maybe it's longer timescale, or maybe it's huge upside/low probability.

Or maybe it got unlucky.

Or maybe we were just wrong.


23) But in general, the patterns are:

a) huge upside

b) really cool project

c) great team

d) partnership potential

We do a lot of judgement calls.

Like:

[A] $1b of burns, $5b daily volume

[B] 0 revenue, $300m incentivized daily volume

B has > mkt cap than A.


24) If you are in the US, this might feel uncomfortable or wrong.

If you're elsewhere, you might be thinking 'obviously'.

But we're all one world.

Anyway I wrote that, reflected, and started getting longer [A].


25) FTT, SRM, and SOL are in their own category.

There are projects we invest in. Projects we support.

And then projects we'll fight like hell for.

We don't believe in them because we're long.

We're long because we believe in them.

When we have conviction -- we buy.


26) but this is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

Even when we really care -- sometimes tokens go down. We can't stop that.

We'll do what we can, and focus on the long term building.

Not on the short term price action.


27) LIKE SERIOUSLY THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

I said that a few times but that's not enough.

This is not investment advice.

I don't know what will go up or down.

I *really* don't know short term.

That depends on what you all do: whether you buy or sell.


28) for NOT TRADING ADVICE, see here:


Given that Alameda is a *trading* company first and foremost, I thought I’d share some thoughts on how we think about trading (in contrast to Sam’s thread about how we think about investing longer-term).


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推文原文:https://twitter.com/SBF_Alameda/status/1314536324381065217

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